Constructive Malifaux Feedback

[Gruesome]

I think a full breakdown would be more interesting as we get into the SS costs where the vast majority of models are.

I think that rezzers have:
10SS: Dead Rider
9SS: Bete and Molly
8SS: Shikome and Hanged

I don't think I would use those as representative of the average defense of rezzers... But, I guess we will see.

EDIT: And no, I will not count Von Schill as a 10 point rezzer model.

[Silas Cordell]

I find comments like this intriguing, and they always make me want to look further into it. Thankfully, RottingPanda has a whole spreadsheet and has shared some of this information on the boards previously.
I found these very helpful overall when I was looking at comparisons, and I look forward to the completion of the 6ss through 2ss models. It may change once those are out, but on a quick look at the data he currently has:

(snip)

10ss models - Res have the 2nd highest average defense.
9ss models - Res have the highest average defense.
8ss models - Res have the 2nd highest, beating guild but tied with all other factions but NB
7ss models - Res have 2nd lowest, beating out Guild.

Is the terrible Df score from the lower cost models or is it perception?

Without doing any calculations (so purely perception), I would say that Resser models don't have terrible defense, but are not likely to have high defense, either. They seem to sit more in the 4-5 range, rather than some other factions where an 8 and 2 may balance out in that range, but it can make the average misleading.

I'm probably too lazy to confirm this myself, I'll admit.

[edonil]

Ressers don't have a lot of models in those ranges. We have a lot of 2-4 SS models that make up the majority of lists. An 'elite' resser list is pretty rare, because we don't have a lot of that stuff. Unless I'm remembering the faction wrong, which is totally possible.

[Boscotopia]

You have, let's say, 20% good cards and 80% bad cards. You flip one card - you still have the same ratio; you flip twenty cards, you still have the same ratio. Statistically speaking. There are minute differences, but we aren't talking about singular cases here, but trends. Also note that there is an infinite number of good cards in the deck, since if you run out, you shuffle it anew.

If what you just said was true, Vegas would have nothing to fear from card counting. Flipping a card from the deck changes the probability of all other possibilities (suit, high/low, specific value). Statistics is merely taking data and analyzing the frequency of past events, so please provide the equations and data to support your claim.
The basic rule of calculating probability states that you take the number of favorable outcomes and divide it by the total number of possible outcomes. So, let's use your example: say there are 20 cards left in the deck, 4 are high 16 are low - we want high. So, we see we have 4/20 , or 1 in 5 chance of pulling our high card. Now, the next card flipped changes the probability 1 of 2 ways. Pull the high card you wanted, that lowers your chance to 1 in 6.33. Pull a low card and your odds increase to 1 in 4.75.........it does not stay the same.

[Omenbringer]

I just cant resist...

[Malovane]

Personally I like the red joker mechanic, but i very much dislike that it can be responsible for killing your model when it should, in theory, be safe.

This is where I have to disagree. I don't think the model should ever be absolutely safe. I don't like the idea of guarenteed safety. It makes the game feel too calculated to me. I love the lack of safety and the idea that bad things will happen. Opinions will certainly vary.

I think a full breakdown would be more interesting as we get into the SS costs where the vast majority of models are.

I think that rezzers have:
10SS: Dead Rider
9SS: Bete and Molly
8SS: Shikome and Hanged

I don't think I would use those as representative of the average defense of rezzers... But, I guess we will see.

I would certainly like to see the full breakdown as well. So far, I've yet to feel like ressers have a substantially lower def. Lots of 4's and 5's. Feels fairly comparable to guild, neverborn probably ranks higher. The h2w seems to compensate for speed and general focus on melee. H2W gives the potential to survive while you close, but it doesn't guarentee it.

Regardless, I've always felt that the ressers play a meat shield & recycle kind of game. Use the cheap fodder to bring in the heavy hitters like bete noire. Then raise your losses back up again. Of course, that is often easier said then done. Trying to play the attrition game seems hit or miss. Generally feels like the aren't enough ap free or enough high crows available to do it effectively.

[edonil]

I just cant resist...

Attachment 6297

Wish I had thought of throwing that up first... :D

[Boscotopia]

Wish I had thought of throwing that up first... :D

+1

That is why probability will always be superior to statistics.

[Math Mathonwy]

If what you just said was true, Vegas would have nothing to fear from card counting. Flipping a card from the deck changes the probability of all other possibilities (suit, high/low, specific value). Statistics is merely taking data and analyzing the frequency of past events, so please provide the equations and data to support your claim.
The basic rule of calculating probability states that you take the number of favorable outcomes and divide it by the total number of possible outcomes. So, let's use your example: say there are 20 cards left in the deck, 4 are high 16 are low - we want high. So, we see we have 4/20 , or 1 in 5 chance of pulling our high card. Now, the next card flipped changes the probability 1 of 2 ways. Pull the high card you wanted, that lowers your chance to 1 in 6.33. Pull a low card and your odds increase to 1 in 4.75.........it does not stay the same.

Yes, after one card, in real life, the distribution changes, but across a million instances of flipping this one card from the deck of twenty it changes according to distribution of the deck. In other words, in 20% of the cases it changes negatively, in 80% of the cases it changes positively. In a single instance it therefore affects the chances, but we are talking about the effects of the rule across the whole game, not across a single instance.

Essentially the same thing as a dice producing an average result of 3.5 though it can never produce that result, the distribution remains the same on average though in actuality it can never remain the same in a singular real life instance.

Maybe it's easier to understand with five cards? When you pull five cards, you are, statistically, again in the same situation. Obviously in a singular situation in real life you probably aren't, since you have pulled five bad cards or two good cards and three bad cards or whatever, but across a million pulls of five cards from a deck of twenty, you are at the same situation on average.

Card counting has absolutely nothing to do with this.

To add to my resume in hopes of keeping me from posting proof (especially since that might get me banned ;)), I play CCGs and have done quite a bit of statistical analysis of different deck ratios, so I'm rather well-versed in deck statistics.

Edit: I do agree however, that the schemes and strategies are in more dire need of fixing, so maybe we should talk about how one should go about fixing them?

[Razhem]

Got to agree with the strat and scheme fixing. A couple of quick ones I'd love is to add to Grudge and Kill Protege that if the model that is being targetted is killed or sacrificed by his own band, it also counts to avoid too much chickanery. I'd also add to deliver the message that if no master is alive, you have to deliver it to a henchmen, if none alive, the highest costing model in play and so on.